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(Read an analysis of that poll’s credibility here.) The same poll (and two others) showed the race a tie on November 2.

The Real Clear Politics polling average on November 2 shows Hillary Clinton with a 1.9 percentage point lead over Donald Trump in the four-way race (and 1.7 in the head-to-head), both of which are in the margin for error and are averages that have steadily dropped in recent days.

So far, Clinton has dropped in a slew of polls measuring all or part of the aftermath.

In another poll, only 33 percent of voters were less likely to vote for Clinton because of the Comey flap, though, but most weren’t going to vote for her anyway.

(See the state-by-state analysis of battleground state polling below).

One example: North Carolina is now a virtual tie because Trump leads in the two most recent polls there, both conducted after the letter.

So, technically, such a state could be placed in the “tightening” for Trump or Clinton category.

That’s explained under each state name below, and the more recent days’ trends were used to decide whether a state was tightening for somebody or not.


However, in some battleground states, such polling has not been conducted yet. Some battleground states simply don’t have a lot of polling.

Fivethirtyeight still gives her a 71.2% chance to win, for example.

To win, Trump is going to have to run the table in states where he is tied and pick up a state where she is still polling between 4-7 percentage points above him (a Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan or Minnesota, for example).

However, although those polls are important, it’s the battleground states where the race will be determined in the Electoral College. Are those state polls showing a similar tightening of the race?

The answer is that Clinton still leads in most of those states in polling averages, but the race is tightening in a host of key states in Trump’s favor as the election heads into its final days.

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